PigeonRaceAnalyser › Ellisras 360 One Loft Race

Ellisras 360 One Loft Race — live race predictor

Sent birds to Ellisras 360? Pick a race below and see the predicted winning velocity and arrival time at the loft — read from the wind and temperature along the actual flight path, and calibrated on Ellisras 360’s own winning results. Free, in your browser, on phone or PC.

About Ellisras 360

The Ellisras 360 One Loft Pigeon Race is flown from a single loft at Lephalale (Ellisras) in the Waterberg, Limpopo — warm-climate country where the birds train year round. Entrants from all over send young birds to the one loft, where they are raised, trained and raced together: one trainer, one feeding programme, one liberation. The season builds from short early races up the long money legs to the Grand Final.

Because every bird flies to the same loft under identical conditions, a One Loft Race is the purest test in pigeon racing — and it also makes for unusually clean prediction data, which is why this page exists.

How the predictor works

The tool samples the wind and 2 m temperature at seven points along the straight-line flight path from the liberation point to the Ellisras 360 loft, placed in time where the birds will actually be as the race unfolds. Those readings feed a winning-velocity model fitted on Ellisras 360’s own winners from 2023 to 2026 — not a generic model. Tailwind speeds the winner up about 23 m/min per m/s; heat slows the field roughly 13 m/min per °C above a 16 °C path average, which matters on the hot, long finals.

It is a forecast, not a tracker. No bird carries a GPS unit — the map shows where the model reckons the leaders are. Past races on the dropdown are re-run on the real race-day weather archive and shown against the actual winner, so you can judge the accuracy for yourself: the trust-check panel under the predictor lists predicted vs actual for every race flown this season.

How to read it

• The dropdown opens on the next upcoming race (or the latest one flown). Upcoming races use the live forecast — check back the night before liberation for the sharpest reading.
• The big time is the projected arrival of the first birds at the loft, with a realistic window either side.
• The ± band next to the velocity is the honest spread — on hot or extra-long races it widens automatically.
• The per-leg table and the wind map show what the birds meet along the way, hour by hour.