Pigeon Race ETA Predictor

Know what time the leaders are due — before the race is even over. Enter your loft GPS, the liberation point and the release time, and this free tool predicts the winning velocity and arrival time from the live wind along the flight path. Runs in your browser on phone or PC.

Open the ETA Predictor →

How it predicts winning velocity and arrival time

The Pigeon Race ETA Predictor answers the question every fancier asks before the first ring drops: what time are the leaders due home? Enter your loft's GPS, pick the liberation point, and set the release date and time — the tool does the rest, live, right in your browser.

Behind the scenes it pulls the live ECMWF wind forecast (via Open-Meteo) at several points spaced along the straight-line flight path from the liberation point to your loft, not just one reading in the middle. Each point gives a wind speed and direction, which the tool resolves into the head-, tail- or crosswind component the birds actually meet as they cross that stretch of the route.

Those wind readings feed a winning-velocity model calibrated on real race data. It doesn't just report a straight-line ground speed — it uses a two-pass calculation: a first pass estimates roughly how long the birds are in the air, which points to which part of the flight (near release or near arrival) matters most for wind, then a second pass refines the arrival time using that placement. Near the end of a race, the live wind is pulled from the freshest near-analysis data rather than the old basketing-day forecast, for a tighter late-race ETA.

The first prediction uses this baked-in model, but you can sharpen it for your own loft: after the race, log the actual winning velocity and the tool refits the model over your logged results plus the calibration set. Your log is private, stored only on your device, and carries across the app and this page.

How to use it

• Tap Open the ETA Predictor above.
• Enter your loft GPS (or tap "Use my loft"/"Use my current location").
• Pick the liberation point — a South African town from the list, or manual GPS for anywhere else.
• Set the race date and release time, then run the prediction.
• Read the projected winning velocity, the estimated arrival time, and the per-leg wind table.

This tool projects a winning velocity from wind conditions — it's a guide, not a guarantee. For after-the-fact wind analysis of your own birds' actual results, upload your race PDFs in the main app.

Open the ETA Predictor →